Ever since the asters came through for me on Judging Day, I'm tempted to plant them again next year after all. Even though I clearly said, many times over, that I wasn't ever doing it again. One of the great things about gardening is, I'm not accountable to anybody. Sole master after God. If I want to change my mind about asters, by gum I will.
So I look in the Book of Evil to see what choices it offers me for asters. They appear to have seven options, of which three are not pleasing to my eyes, one is what I've already got, one is all blue, and two are mixes. Now I don't want the one I already have, because I already have it and it's not "mixed" enough. And I don't want the all-blue one, because I got burned by blue hybrids this year already. Next time I want blue flowers, which is all the time, I'll plant the ones that are naturally blue, not the evil mutants.
That leaves "Idyll mix" and "Duchess mix". Idyll has six colours and costs 3.25 cents per seed. Duchess has twelve colours and costs 0.61 cents per seed. Does this cost thing matter? Possibly. Because sometimes the price reflects how much work went into making the hybrid, and therefore how messed up they are, genetically speaking. The Island of Dr. Moreau of plants. And really messed up hybrids, as I've learned to my chagrin, don't always perform well.
So the Duchess hybrid may (or may not) be more reliable than Idyll, and also, it has twelve colours. That's pretty fancy. On the other hand, it's about 400 seeds to a package and it grows two feet tall, so that's an issue. I'm not seeding 400 asters, and even if I did, they wouldn't all come up. Therefore, I asked myself, if I have 400 seeds, being equal proportions of 12 different colours (an assumption that may not be correct), how many seeds do I have to sprout in order to be certain of having one of each? The answer to that is obviously 368, which isn't helpful. So what I need to know is, how many seeds do I need in order to be reasonably confident of having one of each colour?
Aye, there's the rub. I've never been any good at probabilities. So I did some calisthenics in Excel and I came up with the following answer:
Again, this rests on the assumptions that (a) there are equal proportions of each colour in each packet of mix and (b) I have a clue what I'm doing. There is no reason to make either of these assumptions, except for the fact that without them, I would have no numbers at all.
Second, the Book of Evil says they spread 12", so each would need a 12" planter. Each. Each of 400 seeds. Hahaha! As if! The utmost I could conceivably grant them is the Jungle, which is 2.18 sq.ft. So if I want to put 118 seeds in the Jungle, they will be on average an inch apart. Well, that's too darn bad. This is my balcony. If you can't live in 1/144 of your normal space requirements, you're just gonna have to die.
The other thing is that the "Pot & Patio" mix I have now is described as "early blooming", yet it took 90 days. Makes me wonder whether those other mixes would ever bloom at all. Maybe I should do a trial run in a small planter, see how long it takes them, and if they work out I can give them the Jungle in 2013.
Anyway, it's a thought.
So I look in the Book of Evil to see what choices it offers me for asters. They appear to have seven options, of which three are not pleasing to my eyes, one is what I've already got, one is all blue, and two are mixes. Now I don't want the one I already have, because I already have it and it's not "mixed" enough. And I don't want the all-blue one, because I got burned by blue hybrids this year already. Next time I want blue flowers, which is all the time, I'll plant the ones that are naturally blue, not the evil mutants.
That leaves "Idyll mix" and "Duchess mix". Idyll has six colours and costs 3.25 cents per seed. Duchess has twelve colours and costs 0.61 cents per seed. Does this cost thing matter? Possibly. Because sometimes the price reflects how much work went into making the hybrid, and therefore how messed up they are, genetically speaking. The Island of Dr. Moreau of plants. And really messed up hybrids, as I've learned to my chagrin, don't always perform well.
So the Duchess hybrid may (or may not) be more reliable than Idyll, and also, it has twelve colours. That's pretty fancy. On the other hand, it's about 400 seeds to a package and it grows two feet tall, so that's an issue. I'm not seeding 400 asters, and even if I did, they wouldn't all come up. Therefore, I asked myself, if I have 400 seeds, being equal proportions of 12 different colours (an assumption that may not be correct), how many seeds do I have to sprout in order to be certain of having one of each? The answer to that is obviously 368, which isn't helpful. So what I need to know is, how many seeds do I need in order to be reasonably confident of having one of each colour?
Aye, there's the rub. I've never been any good at probabilities. So I did some calisthenics in Excel and I came up with the following answer:
- If I sprout 32 seeds, I have a better than 50% chance of having at least one of each colour.
- If I sprout 41 seeds, I have a better than 75% chance of having at least one of each colour.
- If I sprout 50 seeds, I have a better than 90% chance of having at least one of each colour.
- If I sprout 73 seeds, I have a better than 99% chance of having at least one of each colour.
- And if I sprout 118 seeds, I have a better than 99.99% chance of having at least one of each colour.
Again, this rests on the assumptions that (a) there are equal proportions of each colour in each packet of mix and (b) I have a clue what I'm doing. There is no reason to make either of these assumptions, except for the fact that without them, I would have no numbers at all.
Second, the Book of Evil says they spread 12", so each would need a 12" planter. Each. Each of 400 seeds. Hahaha! As if! The utmost I could conceivably grant them is the Jungle, which is 2.18 sq.ft. So if I want to put 118 seeds in the Jungle, they will be on average an inch apart. Well, that's too darn bad. This is my balcony. If you can't live in 1/144 of your normal space requirements, you're just gonna have to die.
The other thing is that the "Pot & Patio" mix I have now is described as "early blooming", yet it took 90 days. Makes me wonder whether those other mixes would ever bloom at all. Maybe I should do a trial run in a small planter, see how long it takes them, and if they work out I can give them the Jungle in 2013.
Anyway, it's a thought.
No comments:
Post a Comment